It’s amazing that after all the months that Congress has wrangled over health care reform as few as one or two senators will make or break the bill. Late last week it looked like the vote of Ben Nelson, a conservative Democrat from Nebraska, could block the bill from passage over the issue of abortion coverage.

The fight over abortion arises because, under the bill, the federal government would take on new responsibilities for health care, subsidizing coverage for millions of people. At issue is whether policies bought with subsidies could cover abortions even if private premiums are separated.

Advocates of abortion rights say that women who now have insurance covering abortion could lose it under the restrictions that would be imposed under a health bill passed by the House last month.

“There are other substantive issues,” Mr. Nelson said in the radio interview. But, speaking about abortion, he added, “That alone is a reason,” the New York Times reported.

The White House has assigned a full-time aide to deal with Sen. Nelson’s concerns as the Senate attempts to move toward a vote on the bill before Christmas. Meanwhile, liberal Democrats are complaining that they have compromised enough to the conservatives, and now they are threatening to block the bill.

It’s fascinating how so much time and effort have been spent to cobble together a health care bill that can garner 60 votes needed for passage in the Senate. While leaders in Congress and the White House seem willing to do anything to placate Sen. Nelson, it’s really unclear how the kowtowing will affect other aspects of the bill.

Meanwhile, our servicemen continue to put their lives on the line in the war against terrorism, which seems to have taken a back seat for the nation’s attention. It simply illustrates that government can’t solve problems for us. Every day we see the government doing things that make no sense, such as inhibiting the free market with needless regulations.

As we have stated many times, in order to reform the health care system we need to empower entrepreneurs to address problems in the marketplace. Take away the onerous certificate of need restrictions for more hospitals and curtail punitive damages for physician malpractice and we could solve the crisis in short order and stimulate the economy at the same time.

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We’re making a bold prediction: Health care reform won’t pass this year or in 2010. In November of 2010 the Democrats will lose control of the House or the Senate, maybe both.

Ultimately, in spring of 2011 health care reform will be passed in a form that makes sense and citizens can afford. Needless to say, it won’t resemble the bills that are currently being debated in Congress.

Here are my reasons:

1. The projected budget deficit is just too large. When you figure all the spending for the economic stimulus coupled with the war on terror, it’s simply incomprehensible how we could begin to dig our way out of the additional budget burden that this proposed legislation will impose. Just paying our current debt without health care reform, should give our legislators pause to wonder what this will do to the economy in general.
2. We’re already losing ground in the global economy with the devaluation of the dollar. The additional tax burden will blow that off the charts.
3. Our Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security programs, in their present forms, cannot be sustained. They represent some of the biggest Ponzi schemes of all times.
4. Our general economy is still two to four years from emerging from this recession.  Congress just can’t jeopardize our recovery with the additional cost of health care reform.

We will continue to comment on the debate.  Obviously, this is a contrarian point of view; most other pundits are saying health care reform will pass. But they’ve missed every deadline so far.